The Little League Coach

Statistics Teach You Things You Would Never Guess About Your Team

Statistics are what you make of them. They are easy to debunk, but they can teach you a ton about your team. Every year, on every team, I have a “huh?” moment in regards to one or two players. “She can’t have that many hits”, “she walks that many batters a game?”. How often I have thought that.

Using statistics you can learn a lot about your team. I don’t mean every pitch dissected in great detail as they do in the majors, but basic, simple, easy to understand statistics. I have a few that I focus on. My favorites are:

1. Slugging %
2. Walks/Inning (or batters faced)

These are the most telling to me. I don’t know how many times someone will ask me “why is he batting 3rd? His swing is horrible and he never hits”. I pull out my stats and say, “he has the 2nd highest slugging % on the team, can you believe that?” This usually quiets the criticism, but so often I discover neat things about my teams this way.

Just when we think a player strikes out all the time, we can run an average of strikeouts/at bat and find out that, in fact, while they may not have a ton of hits, they rarely strike out. A player we think is a dominant pitcher may have a wild streak and walk a bunch of batters, stats will expose this.

More often than not though, the opposite holds true. It just “feels like she walks a bunch of batters” at times, but the stats will show that, in fact, she walks much less than the hard thrower who everyone is in love with. While the pitcher may often go deep in the count, that doesn’t mean she actually walks a lot of batters. That is told with the stats.

I recommend you set up an easy excel spreadsheet to track basic stats. If you need one, email me, I am happy to customize one for you. Stats are very telling, use them, but don’t fall in love with them. Just when you start believing all your stats, they will lie to you. This is the baseball Gods at work.

How do you use stats when preparing your lineup?

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General
Base on balls, baseball, batting, Batting average, List of baseball jargon, Pitcher, Slugging percentage, statistics, Strikeout
8 November 2008 comment TrackBack-URI

Making a Line-Up

Making a line-up for a Little League game can be a nightmare on many levels. First of all, you probably have a kid on the team that you are either too hard on or playing where they don’t belong. Likewise, you are likely to have parents who think little Jimmy or Jenny are better than they really are and will accuse you of “daddy ball”. Therefore, utilizing a system of basic baseball/softball philosophy 101 I devised this generic line-up. Using this, I can simply plug in the proper player in their position in the line-up and nobody can argue with me.

1st – Batter with the best on-base %. This position needs to get on base EVERY time possible and create havoc. I heard a coach in the Little League World Series say that he put his best hitters top to bottom because over the course of the entire tournament they got more at-bats that way. I understand that philosophy, but I have to disagree with it. What good is having your best hitter #1 if nobody is on base? Hit the buy with the best OBP first, they will likely score every inning.

2nd – Batter with the least number of strike outs. In a close game you need to “get ‘em on, get ‘em over, and get ‘em in”. The #2 batter’s responsibility is to “get ‘em over” in a tight game, but regardless, with a good likelyhood the #1 batter is on base, you need the #2 to be able to put the ball in play. This batter should be able to bunt, hit-n-run, and hit behind the runner. They should be able to handle the bat in any situation but need not have a ton of power.

3rd – Your speed power guy. This is the first of the power hitters, but not the best power hitter. The best power hitter goes in the #4 spot, this batter is the 2nd best power hitter or the guy with the #2 slugging %. He should also be fairly fast and able to bunt, hit and run, or hit behind the batter if necessary.

4th – Top Slugging % guy. This is the most important spot in the line-up. It is likely there are two or more runners on base when this batter is up. They must be clutch, have power, and be able to routinely shoot the gaps.

5th – 3rd in slugging % on the team. This batter needs to be able to protect the #4 hitter if they think they can pitch around or walk him. He needs to make them pay for that. He should have a fair amount of power but need not be the most powerful hitter. Likewise, he doesn’t need as much speed as the #3 hitter.

From this point forward I digress from conventional baseball wisdom. My thinking here is to bunch the hitters from this point forward. I don’t really care about the power guy that strikes out a lot or the the 2nd leadoff hitter hitting #9. If my 7/8/9 batters go in order, that is only one inning and I am right back at the top where I will pick up a few more runs.

6th – Highest Average left on the bench
7th – Next highest average on the bench
8th – Next highest average on the bench
9th – Next highest average on the bench
(continue for continuous batting order)

Notice I have not even mentioned defense at this point. I like to use my best hitters to start with and adjust as the game goes on. The exception to this rule would be a starting pitcher that doesn’t hit well, but in Little League, you aren’t often faced with that situation. I always want to get a jump on the score and then try and protect the lead rather than have to play come back or catch up.

With the generous Little League substitution rules I can manipulate my defense or offense according to the game situation. Adding defense when ahead and stacking hitters when we need a few runs.

Using this system a player that gets better moves up in the line-up and players that are struggling begin to move down. This challenges the players struggling and rewards those working the hardest. Additionally, I know some coaches like to spread their hitters out over the line-up. This is dead wrong in my mind.

You want to stack your hits together and then hope that the weaker hitters can get on base one way or another. Even if the weaker ones don’t get on, they only cost you an inning. If you spread your talent out that only leads to runners left on base, stringing the hits together brings the runners home.

What system do you use to create a line-up? Do stats play into it?

General
Base Percentage, baseball, batting, Batting average, Batting order, List of baseball jargon, Little League World Series, Slugging percentage
7 November 2008 comments [4] TrackBack-URI