Statistics Teach You Things You Would Never Guess About Your Team
Statistics are what you make of them. They are easy to debunk, but they can teach you a ton about your team. Every year, on every team, I have a “huh?” moment in regards to one or two players. “She can’t have that many hits”, “she walks that many batters a game?”. How often I have thought that.
Using statistics you can learn a lot about your team. I don’t mean every pitch dissected in great detail as they do in the majors, but basic, simple, easy to understand statistics. I have a few that I focus on. My favorites are:
1. Slugging %
2. Walks/Inning (or batters faced)
These are the most telling to me. I don’t know how many times someone will ask me “why is he batting 3rd? His swing is horrible and he never hits”. I pull out my stats and say, “he has the 2nd highest slugging % on the team, can you believe that?” This usually quiets the criticism, but so often I discover neat things about my teams this way.
Just when we think a player strikes out all the time, we can run an average of strikeouts/at bat and find out that, in fact, while they may not have a ton of hits, they rarely strike out. A player we think is a dominant pitcher may have a wild streak and walk a bunch of batters, stats will expose this.
More often than not though, the opposite holds true. It just “feels like she walks a bunch of batters” at times, but the stats will show that, in fact, she walks much less than the hard thrower who everyone is in love with. While the pitcher may often go deep in the count, that doesn’t mean she actually walks a lot of batters. That is told with the stats.
I recommend you set up an easy excel spreadsheet to track basic stats. If you need one, email me, I am happy to customize one for you. Stats are very telling, use them, but don’t fall in love with them. Just when you start believing all your stats, they will lie to you. This is the baseball Gods at work.
How do you use stats when preparing your lineup?
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Making a Line-Up
Making a line-up for a Little League game can be a nightmare on many levels. First of all, you probably have a kid on the team that you are either too hard on or playing where they don’t belong. Likewise, you are likely to have parents who think little Jimmy or Jenny are better than they really are and will accuse you of “daddy ball”. Therefore, utilizing a system of basic baseball/softball philosophy 101 I devised this generic line-up. Using this, I can simply plug in the proper player in their position in the line-up and nobody can argue with me.
1st – Batter with the best on-base %. This position needs to get on base EVERY time possible and create havoc. I heard a coach in the Little League World Series say that he put his best hitters top to bottom because over the course of the entire tournament they got more at-bats that way. I understand that philosophy, but I have to disagree with it. What good is having your best hitter #1 if nobody is on base? Hit the buy with the best OBP first, they will likely score every inning.
2nd – Batter with the least number of strike outs. In a close game you need to “get ‘em on, get ‘em over, and get ‘em in”. The #2 batter’s responsibility is to “get ‘em over” in a tight game, but regardless, with a good likelyhood the #1 batter is on base, you need the #2 to be able to put the ball in play. This batter should be able to bunt, hit-n-run, and hit behind the runner. They should be able to handle the bat in any situation but need not have a ton of power.
3rd – Your speed power guy. This is the first of the power hitters, but not the best power hitter. The best power hitter goes in the #4 spot, this batter is the 2nd best power hitter or the guy with the #2 slugging %. He should also be fairly fast and able to bunt, hit and run, or hit behind the batter if necessary.
4th – Top Slugging % guy. This is the most important spot in the line-up. It is likely there are two or more runners on base when this batter is up. They must be clutch, have power, and be able to routinely shoot the gaps.
5th – 3rd in slugging % on the team. This batter needs to be able to protect the #4 hitter if they think they can pitch around or walk him. He needs to make them pay for that. He should have a fair amount of power but need not be the most powerful hitter. Likewise, he doesn’t need as much speed as the #3 hitter.
From this point forward I digress from conventional baseball wisdom. My thinking here is to bunch the hitters from this point forward. I don’t really care about the power guy that strikes out a lot or the the 2nd leadoff hitter hitting #9. If my 7/8/9 batters go in order, that is only one inning and I am right back at the top where I will pick up a few more runs.
6th – Highest Average left on the bench
7th – Next highest average on the bench
8th – Next highest average on the bench
9th – Next highest average on the bench
(continue for continuous batting order)
Notice I have not even mentioned defense at this point. I like to use my best hitters to start with and adjust as the game goes on. The exception to this rule would be a starting pitcher that doesn’t hit well, but in Little League, you aren’t often faced with that situation. I always want to get a jump on the score and then try and protect the lead rather than have to play come back or catch up.
With the generous Little League substitution rules I can manipulate my defense or offense according to the game situation. Adding defense when ahead and stacking hitters when we need a few runs.
Using this system a player that gets better moves up in the line-up and players that are struggling begin to move down. This challenges the players struggling and rewards those working the hardest. Additionally, I know some coaches like to spread their hitters out over the line-up. This is dead wrong in my mind.
You want to stack your hits together and then hope that the weaker hitters can get on base one way or another. Even if the weaker ones don’t get on, they only cost you an inning. If you spread your talent out that only leads to runners left on base, stringing the hits together brings the runners home.
What system do you use to create a line-up? Do stats play into it?
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Intentional Walks
Why do all Little League parents and some coaches have so much trouble with the intentional walk? They usually start yelling things like “unsportsmanlike”, “all you want to do is win”, etc. It confuses me greatly. Would they say the same thing about the bunt? The intentional walk is a strategy employed by the coach just as bunting, stealing, hit and run, are employed. So why the hubbub?
A lot of Little League teams have that one stud. The kid that is 10 times better than anyone else on the team. He bats about .750 and hits home runs regularly. The odds are, he is going to hit the ball. Everyone worth their salt knows that in baseball you don’t let the other team’s best player beat you. No way, no how. So, if the situation arises, you have to walk them.
Lets take a situation I had the other night. The team we were playing has a stud that crushes the ball. We were tied in the bottom of the last inning with two outs and they had the winning run on 2nd. A single scores the kid from second, and the batter’s run really means nothing. He has at least a 75% chance of hitting a single. Why would any coach put his team in the position of having a 3-in-4 chance they are going to lose the game?
Here is what happens if you walk the kid:
1. You reduce the chances that the ball will be hit because the next kid has only a .400 average if that. So a 40% chance of a hit.
2. You create a force situation at every base except home.
3. You can back your infielders up and even if the ball is hit, it will only result in an infield single at most and the runs won’t score. You will only have bases loaded and now a force at every base including home.
If you don’t walk him, you have a 75% hitter up there w/ your infield having to play mid-level so they can make the throw to first in time, their only play for the most part, and if they throw it away the run is likely to score. Pitching to this batter makes absolutely no sense under any circumstances.
So, back to my original question, why do the parents lose their mind? Because, again, they are reacting to the situation with a very limited knowledge of the situation. They are passing judgment without fully educating themselves. In this situation, there is usually the educated dad or coach in the stands speaking loudly saying something like “smart move” or “he has to do it” to try and quell the protesters. But for the most part, intentional walks in Little League are met with disdain.
Do you intentionally walk batters in Little League? If so, under what circumstances?
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Little League White Paper Hits and Runs, Bumps and Bruises: Health, Safety and Injury Prevention are the Keystone of Little League
I received a white paper from Little League today that provides a historical perspective of their Safety Initiative Program. Nobody can touch Little League for safety initiatives. All others follow their lead. They began tracking injuries in the early ’60’s and continue their efforts today.
Key Safety Initiatives:
- 1961-Batting helmet mandatory
- .0003% of injured Little Leaguer’s required medical attention.
- 8 fatalities in Little League 6 from wood bats, 2 from aluminum bats
- Since 1990 not 1 death in over 18 million games and 40 million practices!
- Bat performance factors of 1.15 approved
- 25-35 injuries of pitchers hit by batted balls/year amazing!
- Pitch counts instituted (The best rule ever!)
- 80 free background checks offered to each league, more than enough for most, additional checks for only $1 each!
This is really good stuff and makes me proud to be part of this organization.
Here is a copy of the letter they sent:
For more than a half-century, Little League International has maintained extensive records on injuries in Little League games and practices. These records have been used over the years to monitor trends and, when necessary, to effect positive changes in the Rules and Regulations.
In many cases, these changes have eventually been adopted in other youth baseball and softball programs, as well as professional baseball. It is just one of the many aspects of Little League that sets us apart from all other youth baseball and softball programs.
For the first time, Little League International has produced a comprehensive report on the history of Little League’s efforts and accomplishments regarding the wellbeing of its participants and volunteers. This white paper entitled “Hits and Runs, Bumps and Bruises: Health, Safety and Injury Prevention are the Keystone of Little League” provides an extensive review of advancements in these areas.
We invite you to review this important document, produced by the Little League International Communications Division. The white paper can be found at the Little League International web site by clicking on the link to the PDF below, or by pasting it into your web browser:
http://www.littleleague.org/Assets/forms_pubs/Hits_Runs_Bumps_Bruises08.pdf
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Red, Yellow, Green
OK, what do you mean you say? What is this red, yellow green thing? This is one of the great benefits of going to the batting cages. The machine turns red before it throws the ball, yellow as the ball is about to be delivered, and green when it throws it.
Applying this to the batter is very valuable. If you have your batters stand in the box with the bat on their shoulder in the red position until the pitcher starts their motion, it eliminates any potential for white knuckles. White knuckles occur when the batter squeezes the bat so hard their knuckles turn white. Nobody can hit tense like that.
Once you get the parents over yelling at their kid to get ready, and they will, you move to yellow. Yellow is “ready” position. The batter should go to yellow when the pitcher makes his/her first movement. This means that the batter will only be in the ready position a few seconds. Again, this reduces the potential for tension and keeps the batter relaxed the way you want them.
Finally, the green. In green the batter swings. This is extremely effective because a kid can understand very easily that green means go. In ball though, green means attack. Next pitch, repeat.
Do you have a good trick you use to make batters relax and then attack?
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Taking Soft Toss to Another Level
Image by Apollo13Ma via Flickr
No Excuses
All coaches should be using soft toss during batting practice and pregame warm ups. There is no excuse not to. It is one of the most valuable drills to teach hitting and if you are not using it, start now!
Basics
That said, it can be so much more than it is. For those that don’t know, the soft toss drill involves positioning the player in front of a net, standing directly in front of him about 6′ away, and softly tossing balls for him to hit . This should be from the side, not the front, if you do it from the front, it isn’t soft toss, its batting practice! Two completely different skills.
Initially, you want to simply use the basic soft toss drill. The object of the coach or "tosser" is to "float" the ball on a tee right in front of the hitter . It should be a toss that seems to stop right where you want the batters bat to come through the zone. I call this "putting it on a tee".
This is great for little ones and for early season work outs. With practice, this drill becomes second nature. If your players are hitting every toss hard they are ready to move to the next level! Congratulations!
Next Level
The next level of soft toss focuses on hitting the ball in locations. Saturday before our softball game I was doing this with the girls and they were very successful! Our girls can knock the snot out of the ball, so while the repetition of the soft toss drill is good, they needed more.
I instructed each of them I was going to throw "out", "middle", "in". What I meant by this was I was going to toss the ball "on the tee" on the outside of the plate, middle of the plate, and inner half of the plate.
What I wanted to accomplish was:
Out – Get them diving into the pitch, hitting it in the back part of their swing and driving the ball to the opposite field
Middle – Getting them to hit the ball right in front of the plate and drive it right up the middle
In – Get them to hit it in the front of their swing and pull it down the line
I was pleasantly surprised how well this worked. Most of them needed a little extra work with "out", but this is typical for all ages, especially younger ones. Using this technique demonstrated what we have been telling them all year. When they succeed with it during a drill, they take this skill to the field with them. Then we can drive the ball all over the field and we are much harder to defend.
Do you have anything you do during soft toss to make it more effective, entertaining, or to keep the kids interest? Please share it with us.
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